I’ve been eyeing the Amazon Kindle for some time as a natural solution for my piles of books and magazines all over the house. I read more than an average person on all sorts of topics in addition to scanning several hundred blog articles a day (follow me on Twitter or checkout the Lifestream page for my recommended posts). Amazon of course is not the first e-ink display device, but certainly the first promoted on the scale of the iPod.

The importance of the e-ink screen cannot be understated for a device like this. The invention of this type of screen brings the alternative to print publications within the realm of possibility. From the standpoint of readability, an e-ink screen allows you to have an experience analogous to reading paper (hence the name). The reason is the lack of backlight which can be very straining on the eyes. We are all used to starring at a computer screen all day, everyday. This of course causes fatigue and eventual eye damage. Being a book worm will usually give you some thick glasses as well, but that’s beside the point.

The other, and I think more important element, is power consumption. Even if the iPhone (which is often mentioned as an ebook alternative) screen was Larger and satisfied the form factor needs for more convenient on-screen reading, it would still not provide the needed battery life. It would in fact decrease precipitously. Not having an adequate battery life would be the number one problem, especially in use cases like textbooks (big push behind Kindle DX). Not to mention that batteries add tremendously to the cost basis and weight of a given device as well.

So what’s Amazon trying to do in a sense is replicate the iPod + iTunes store phenomenon. However, in my estimation, this is not an apples-to-apples (pardon the pun) with the music listening and reading markets. On the surface you may say albums = books, podcasts = blogs, personal documents, periodicals, etc. Well the fact of the matter is that book reading is unfortunately falling (in America especially) and music is much more universal and passive. Podcasts are usually a weekly update with the average person consuming a couple to a dozen. Where blogs are a lot more time sensitive and have a much higher volume of information. They cannot be consumed passively and require a decent browser and connection. Personal documents need the most different ways of interaction – from simply reading to heavy markup for editing to posting on a bulletin board, etc. We are far away from simply replacing “printing out” as Amazon proposes. This brings us to periodicals, which are actually the most applicable to being replaced by an electronic device (more on that later).

So coming back to the Kindle marketplace. Does it equal the iTunes store? I don’t think so, at least not yet. Is it going to motivate mass adoption of the device? Not this generation of Kindles, they are not ready.

What MP3 players did (and iPod eventually pushed main stream) was make a common passive activity A LOT more convenient. They did so by providing an adequate quality listening experience (to most consumers), similar or better battery life (as compared to a CD player) and an ability to take your whole music library with you. That is some unambiguous benefits with virtually no down sides.

Is Kindle doing the same thing? No. An ebook reader lacking a color screen is similar to an MP3 player that giving you mono output at below cassette tape fidelity. There is no way anyone would really be compelled to get an MP3 player with such handicaps to the experience they are already used to, even if it did hold their entire collection.

Next, lack of touch screen. I’m an information architect and usability has always been a big topic for me. Expecting people to give up the kinesthetic feel of handling a book, periodical or document – being able to turn a page – is very disruptive to what everyone has been doing their whole lives. Some may think this is a not a big deal, but to me being able to interact with a document directly (especially while editing, highlighting, etc) is crucial. Sony has already touched on this with the PRS-700BC Digital Reader

And finally, the inability to digitize your existing library. You can do this with all of your music… but with the Kindle you would have to repurchase your entire library. This is a major disappointment. There are all sorts of complicated copyright issues involved here, but not as big as music and movie rights. Just mechanically, a typical user will not scan their books page by page to get them on the device. There should be a way to scan a bar code on your books and download ecopies for free or at a small cost to cover the bandwidth. Of course some folks would then go scan a local library or Borders and that has to be designed into the system.

The one thing it will kind of work for now is newspapers. Nice color glossy magazines? Not so much. Boring black and white columns of text, check. Is that going to excite anyone? No. Will some people buy it for this? Probably. But this is not a bail-out for the newspaper industry which relies heavily on ads for revenue, not the subscription revenues (which Amazon will take 70% of on the Kindle).

To me the Kindle is a no-go for the above three major reasons, in that order. I would imagine that these things, in addition to a somewhat prohibitive price for the average consumer, will prevent the device from hitting mainstream at this generation (2.5). Amazon is a retailer and their mentality is “if we advertise the crap out of it and get Oprah to mention it, they will come.” But I don’t buy it (har har).

So what did Amazon accomplish for themselves? I don’t think the revenue from the device is making a dent on their books quite yet but it is a good preemptive strike to protect their core book selling business. If they didn’t/don’t do it someone else eventually will. And they created a bit of a head start. They’ve also validated the sector to a certain degree which is a double-edged sword that will push the momentum behind the whole space.

Now Amazon has to work as hard & fast as possible to put as much distance between the Kindle and the incoming competition as they can. Besides the continuous heavy marketing investment, they also can’t afford to even slow down on the hardware innovation side. My prediction is that whoever solves the three problems above (in that order) and can offer a device at a more competitive price-point, will win. And they will win resoundingly in the process erasing Amazon’s first mover advantage.

Who has the potential of doing this? The easy answer of course is Apple. Because Apple = consistent device execution to near perfection. Will they do it with the much rumored 10″ device to be announced possibly as soon as June? I’m leaning towards “unlikely”. They would be much better served protecting and growing the bottom end of their laptop market with a cheapo entry level notebook. Especially with the recent sales figures and surrendered market share. They are known for connecting the dots well and creating convergence devices that are actually usable. Still not an easy feat in this case due to the need for a specialty screen.

Please share your thoughts in the comments below.